By Kenneth Moeng Mokgatlhe. Mokgatlhe is a political writer and researcher. He is based at Israel’s Ben Gurion University of the Negev.
The recent missile barrage by Iran, launching over 180 rockets toward Israel, has marked a dangerous escalation in the long-standing Middle Eastern conflict. This significant attack is not merely a regional event—it has the potential to reshape global security dynamics, with reverberations that could affect the world’s most vulnerable economies, much like the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.
The conflict in Ukraine has already shown how regional tensions can cripple global food supply chains, driving up prices that disproportionately hurt Africa’s poorest. With Iran and Israel now on the brink of an all-out war, the repercussions will similarly ripple through economies, destabilizing nations that are already struggling to survive. A full-scale conflict between these two powerful adversaries is not in anyone’s interest.
The Catalyst: October 7 and Its Consequences
Tensions have simmered between Israel and its adversaries for years, but Hamas’ brutal attack on October 7, 2023, was a tipping point. In an unprecedented assault, over 1,200 Israelis were killed, 251 kidnapped, and cities ravaged. Israel responded with force, vowing to dismantle Hamas once and for all.
Iran, the undisputed backer of Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, has long aimed to eliminate Israel. This is no secret—Hamas’ charter and their infamous slogan, “From the river to the sea,” leave little doubt about their intentions. The attack on October 7 was not an isolated act; it was part of a coordinated strategy by Iran and its proxies to weaken and ultimately destroy Israel.
While Hamas’ forces are now in disarray, their allies—Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen—have kept the pressure on. Israel’s military is stretched thin, battling on multiple fronts. As the first anniversary of October 7 approaches, Gaza remains a battlefield, while northern Israel faces relentless rocket fire from Hezbollah. Israel’s retaliation, especially against Hezbollah, has escalated further, pushing the region toward a dangerous precipice.
Iran’s Role in Escalating the Conflict
Iran’s influence cannot be understated. The Islamic Republic has supported these proxy groups with military training, funding, intelligence, and weaponry for decades. The attack on October 7 was meticulously planned, likely with significant Iranian backing. Hamas, on its own, lacks the capacity to launch such a coordinated and devastating assault.
In a striking move, Iran directly attacked Israel in April 2024, a historic first. I was in Be’er Sheva, in southern Israel, during that attack. Fear swept through the city—no one was immune to the threat. Unlike its proxies, Iran is a formidable opponent. This is why de-escalation is crucial; the consequences of full-scale war would be devastating, not just for Israel and Iran but for the entire world.
The most recent attack from Iran was even more severe than their assault in April. Although there have been no reported casualties, the message was clear: Iran is willing to intensify its military aggression. Yet, ordinary citizens in both Israel and Iran are not clamoring for war—they know all too well the horrors it brings.
The Global Impact of Middle Eastern Tensions
The conflict in the Middle East is polarizing the international community, forcing countries to choose sides in a battle that has no easy solutions. Rather than rushing to assign blame or pick allegiances, world leaders must prioritize diplomacy. A diplomatic resolution is still possible, but time is running out.
The United Nations and other global powers must step up their efforts to mediate peace, preventing further escalation. The Lebanese government, for example, should take decisive action against Hezbollah, a group that has dragged Lebanon into conflicts it never sought. Since Hezbollah’s rise in the early 1980s, Lebanon, once a beacon of peace and prosperity, has been reduced to a war-torn state, with the bloody 2006 war as a painful reminder.
The Path Forward: Diplomacy and Peace
War is not the solution. The people of the Middle East deserve better than endless cycles of violence. The international community, particularly organizations like the United Nations, must increase efforts to foster peace and ensure stability in this volatile region.
Diplomacy is the only way forward. A war between Iran and Israel will not solve the deep-rooted issues plaguing the Middle East. Instead, it will deepen suffering and prolong the instability that has defined the region for decades. The world cannot afford another prolonged conflict—it’s time to prioritize peace over war.
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