Concerns about the future of economic growth and political stability are key factors motivating emigration from South Africa. While this may be a conclusion that sounds obvious, it’s good to know that it’s backed up by sound research and statistics.
It was a comment that became clear during a presentation recently hosted by the South African Jewish Museum by Reviva Hasson, a social scientist from the Kaplan Centre for Jewish Studies & Research. The focus of the presentation was the findings of three surveys undertaken by the Kaplan Centre in 1998, 2005 and 2019 into trends in emigration among the Jewish population of South Africa.
The Jewish population of South Africa has declined by more than 50% over the past 50 years. From the 120 000 Jews in South Africa in the 1970s, the most recent estimate is 52 000. “Factors causing this decline include a lower birth rate than the death rate, assimilation and emigration. Emigration has been a major factor in Jewish society in our country for the past 50 years,” explains Reviva. “Three in five Jewish South Africans have close family members living abroad.”
The emigration of the Jewish demographic mirrors emigration among the population more generally, and a UN 2020 statistic put the number of (general) South Africans living abroad at around 1 million. The Kaplan Centre estimates that there are 60 000 South African-born Jews living abroad. In addition to these fairly significant numbers, it is also a concern that the bulk of them are professionals and people with high levels of tertiary education – in other words, it’s a ‘brain drain’ trend.
Interesting fact: More South African-born Jews live abroad than in South Africa
An important lesson from the 2005 survey: the propensity among Jewish South Africans to want to leave the country was lower than reflected in the other two surveys. Just 7% of people surveyed in that year indicated a desire to leave the country – a far lower percentage than in the other two surveys. This was a period of relative political calm; the country was experiencing economic growth; and the exchange rate was stabilising. “The economic and political stability exemplifying this period is to be noted because it clearly translated into a stronger willingness among people to remain in South Africa,” Reviva says. It’s a lesson for governments to heed.
Interesting fact: Concerns about crime and safety was a dominant factor in emigration during the 1990s but its significance has declined in recent times.
Another interesting finding of the various surveys is how our population has viewed Israel as a destination of choice for emigrants. While Israel did not feature as a strong option in both 1998 and 2005 – when the USA, the UK and Australia were the most popular places to move to – that changed quite dramatically in the most recent survey. Reviva explains: “The 2019 survey revealed that over 50% of prospective emigrants considered Israel as the country to move to, which is significantly higher than in previous years.” (It must be remembered that this finding relates to a period prior to the current wars Israel has been facing since October 2023, and so the sentiment may not be quite the same right now.)
The motivating factors for the selection of Israel are wide: from “a desire to live in Israel”, Zionist beliefs, to the desire to be with other family members, to the fact that people are more likely to be accepted into Israel as emigrants than in other countries. (Recent years have seen more onerous eligibility requirements for emigrants to countries like Australia.)
The interest in Israel is seen across all age groups, and the greater the level of Orthodox practice, the stronger the motivation to make aliyah rather than moving to another country.
Surveys of this sort offer valuable insights into the Jewish world as experienced in our country. ●
If you’d like to see more detail about Reviva’s findings, see her article published in Jewish Affairs.
REVIVA HASSON applies her background in Economics to carry out micro survey data in her role as a social scientist for the Kaplan Centre for Jewish Studies & Research.
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